Global Integration
It’s December, a month typically known for two “C” words – cold weather and Christmas. For those in the Eastern United States and Canada, the first “C” has already struck while kids around the world eagerly await gifts from the second “C“.
December also marks the end of the calendar year and the last entry in our 2025 Current Event series. For much of this year, the series has focused on the impact of tariffs on the global economy. Instead of closing out the year with another post on tariffs, we wanted to focus on one specific word from that last sentence: global.
U.S. is world’s leading propane/LPG exporter
When describing our company, Westlark Advisors, to new friends, I almost always ask this question: “Did you know that the United States is the world’s leading propane/LPG exporter?” That one question redirects the conversation away from any Hank Hill reference and typically generates an,“I had no idea,” response.
With the U.S. becoming such a dominant player in the global LPG markets, something else has begun to happen. Over the previous five years, major propane/LPG pricing locations in the U.S., such as Belvieu and Conway, have become much more reactive to international forces.
Major U.S. Pricing Centers More Reactive to International Forces
Two prime examples of this have taken place just within the last two months. At the end of every calendar month, Saudi Aramco provides a market price for their customers. This value is called the Saudi CP and is the price that a customer will pay for an LPG cargo.
The First Example
At the end of September 2025, the new monthly value for the Saudi CP for the upcoming month of October was suddenly decreased by $50 per metric ton. That translates into roughly $.10/gallon for propane/LPG values within the United States. Speculations on this decrease were rampant. Was this a possible method to keep a major customer, India, from moving toward purchasing U.S. supply? Or was this the Saudi Aramco solution to become more competitive in the global market?
Reaction
Regardless of the reason, the reaction in the U.S. was very interesting. Belvieu prices, the location that determines most U.S. propane/LPG export values, dropped during the month of October. Our Westlark team advised clients that Belvieu could see up to a dime decrease in order to match the impact from falling Saudi CP price for October. From the first of October to just past the midway point of that month, Belvieu prices had actually fallen a little over a dime.
The Second Example
Jump forward to December and the global LPG markets were faced with another pricing scenario. The Saudi CP values increased $50 per metric ton for this month and “surprisingly” Belvieu prices started the month higher. Our friends at OPIS provided this analysis regarding the most recent price increase: “recent buying strength is largely coming from Chinese PDH operators, which become one of the Middle East’s key export outlets after China reduced U.S. supply during the U.S.-China trade war.”
Reaction
As in October, our view is that U.S. prices will follow international pricing and fully expect Belvieu to move up through this month. International pressures are clearly driving U.S. pricing locations. And this cause-and-effect situation will increase as U.S. exports continue to grow in the coming years.
Conclusion
We may not be closing our 2025 Current Events series with another discussion of tariffs, but we are focusing on the growing global integration taking place in the propane/LPG markets. Certainly, both the domestic and international markets have been affected by recent tariffs and other factors.
Westlark Advisors has been closely watching these global changes and keeping track of the impacts to the propane/LPG markets. We will continue to closely monitor these changes, so we can help our energy industry clients make smart decisions in a volatile commodity market.
In 2026, the Westlark Team will continue our Current Events series, exploring topics and issues that affect the energy industry today. We welcome feedback and would love to know what topics and issues interest you. If there are things in the propane/LPG markets that you’d like to know more about, contact a Westlark Team Member today!
Current Events – December 2025
By JD Buss
