Data Integrity
Many of our Current Event posts this year have focused on tariffs. August 2025 is yet another pivotal month for tariffs and their possible impact on global economies. We could write ad nauseam about tariffs; however, a news event at the end of last week has highlighted another pressing item for the energy (and equity) markets: data integrity.
A Disturbing Trend?
On August 1, 2025, President Trump “ordered the firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics” after a government report from that office identified slower job growth in the prior three months. Trump went on to state in a Truth Social post that “We need accurate Jobs Numbers. . . . In my opinion, today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.”
Job numbers, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and many other government data points have often undergone revisions after their first announcement. The move to fire the leader of the Bureau of Labor Statistics highlights another trend that was set in motion several months ago.
Staff Reduction at EIA Impacts Data Release
On April 16, Reuters reported that “The U.S. government’s energy statistics arm (EIA – Energy Information Administration) is set to lose over 100 employees after the Trump administration’s latest round of resignation offers, putting at risk some of the most closely watched energy reports globally.” That almost 30% reduction in staff was a result of the DOGE activities and at least a partial cause for why the EIA also cancelled the release of their International Energy Outlook (IEO) for 2025.
At the very end of a Latitude Media article dated April 18, 2025, the author provided this analysis: “The remaining staffers [at EIA] are reportedly assessing which of the office’s reports they will be able to keep releasing in the future.” Since that April time frame, there are now estimates that the EIA could see up to a 40% reduction in overall workforce.
How This Impacts the Energy Sector
- Are we using this blog to make some political point?
- Does this even matter to the energy sector?
The answer to the first question is, “NO! We are definitely not making any political point!” To answer the second question, we would say that this type of news matters because a large reduction in personnel could affect the quality and breadth of data review.
The Importance of the EIA to the Energy Sector
ProPublica’s review of these EIA changes on May 5, 2025, stated:
“the EIA’s data has been called the ‘gold standard’ by Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global and an eminence grise in the world of oil.”
(I have Daniel Yergin’s well-known book, The Prize, sitting on my own energy bookshelf.) Most of the energy world waits in suspense for the EIA’s data release regarding oil and natural gas every Wednesday and Thursday. For almost fifty years, the EIA has provided data and analysis about and for the energy trading world. Their presence has become entrenched in the energy sector as a valued and impartial data provider.
A huge loss of personnel could limit the EIA’s ability to stringently review data submitted to them, as well as limit the overall amount of data they are able to include in their analysis and reports. These limits could open the door for one (or more) energy trading firms to identify ways to maximize their profit due to limitations from the data provided, potentially to the exclusion of other firms and businesses.
Conclusion
Data from the EIA, along with many other forms of government data, have been instrumental in leveling the playing field for commodities and equity trading. These data points have also been instrumental in helping to produce a greater understanding of many market fundamentals. We are not stating that recent changes have caused a reduction or drop off in data quality. We are simply recognizing that the current situation has a greater risk of such a reduction or drop off occurring.
Data integrity is an important issue for the energy sector. It is one that the Westlark Advisors Team will be watching closely over the coming months. If you would like to see more of our insights on current events and how they affect the energy sector check out the rest of our Current Events posts here. If you would like more information about data integrity and how it could impact your business, contact a Westlark Advisors Team Member today!
Current Events – August 2025
By JD Buss
