2026 – The Year of the . . . ?
2025 may go down as the “year of the tariff.” We are only a few days into 2026, so we don’t yet know how this year will be defined. However, based on a couple of events that took place in the last few weeks, we would like to suggest a theme.
The First Event: Protests in Iran
Protests in Iran are the center of the first event. The opening line from a December 29, 2025, Bloomberg article captures this image:
“Iran’s capital [Tehran] was hit by a wave of protests after the local currency slumped to a record low, pushing up food prices and deepening an economic crisis in the sanctions-hit nation.”
How low did the currency go? On Sunday, December 28, 2025, the rial went to a low of 1.45 million against the U.S. dollar in what Bloomberg clarified as the “unregulated market”. This huge devaluation could be tied to a deal earlier in 2025 that limited Iranian atomic activities while also forcing them to find new revenue streams.
Impact of Sanctions
These new revenue streams focused on decreasing gasoline subsidies, increasing taxes by 60%, and increasing government wages by only 20% when inflation has reached over 40%. All of these issues are ultimately tied to the fact that many years of sanctions have limited Iran’s oil revenues and contributed to the current crisis.
The impact of sanctions on Iran’s population is discussed thoroughly in the article “How Sanctions Eroded Iran’s Middle Class”, published in October 2025 on the VoxDev platform. There are many ideas in this article that merit exploration and discussion. However, we want to focus on one point: the graph showing Iran’s Revenue from Oil exports declining almost $70 billion USD per year from 2011 to 2019. That one stat highlights the extreme economic situation of this nation.
The Second Event: Regime Change in Venezuela
The second event focuses on the ousting of Venezuelan President Maduro by the United States military on January 3, 2026. Throughout December, the U.S. Coast Guard seized vessels carrying, or attempting to carry, Venezuelan oil. A formal blockade currently surrounds the Venezuelan coast in an attempt to stop any illegal vessel from entering or exiting the nation’s ports.
Impact of the Blockade
What is the impact of this blockade?
A lengthy article published January 2, 2026, put the impact at:
“$900 million worth of Venezuelan crude oil remaining stranded in tankers awaiting clearance.”
Another January 2nd report stated that Venezuela may be running out of places to store their residual fuel oil, which could force them to shut down refineries.
Most news reports speculated that the U.S. blockade was an effort to force a regime change within Venezuela. That change took place on January 3rd. Former President Maduro and his wife are in New York City currently awaiting trial. At a recent press conference, President Trump stated that the U.S. will handle things during a Venezuelan transition AND that U.S. oil firms would invest in energy infrastructure in the nation.
Conclusion
How could these two events shape 2026?
Ultimately, both events are about oil money. There is a lot more detail and nuance to each situation, but both nations survive on revenue from oil. Those revenues have been cut back severely over many years, which has created a precarious situation for both Iran and Venezuela.
Compounding the lost revenue issue are these two facts:
- Oil prices are at their lowest level in 5 years
- Projections show most of the globe will have an oil surplus for at least the first half of 2026
Tariffs may have been the transforming factor for the global energy markets in 2025. This year, national changes in two major oil producing countries could heavily impact the energy markets of the world. As the Westlark Team monitors energy markets over the coming months, these issues will be a major focus.
Current Events – January 2026
By JD Buss
