2026: What to Expect
Prognostications, Prophecies, & Predictions
Ending one year and beginning a new one always brings out prognostications, prophecies, and predictions. At Westlark Advisors, we don’t want to disappoint, so we thought we would come up with our own version of the “three P’s” regarding the propane (LPG) market for 2026.
Here are a few predictions from the Westlark Team about things that could happen in 2026 to impact the propane (LPG) industry.
In 2026, you can expect . . .
1. That the United States will continue to drive the global energy markets.
Last year, the focus was on tariffs. The focus in 2026 could be leverage. The year has already begun with the U.S. administration capturing a sitting national president for trial in New York City. This was quickly followed by the seizure of that nation’s oil assets.
In addition, President Trump now seeks ownership of Greenland, which has been met with strong resistance from much of Europe. Is Iran the next target, or another nation?
The immediate future is uncertain, but you can trust that the U.S. government appears to be exerting maximum leverage to achieve the current administration’s goals. This could define the next year.
2. Plenty of oil and LPG.
The prior year closed with floating oil reserves growing and a broadening concern that the global oil market could be oversupplied. We don’t see this changing, at least during the first half of 2026.
LPG inventory levels within North America, now the world’s largest exporter, have been sitting at record highs. Production levels should see a steady increase which means LPG inventory may remain high – at least for the first 6-9 months of the year.
3. Conflict between the U.S. Federal Reserve and President Trump will be an important issue.
President Trump has been consistent in both his desire for lower interest rates and for the removal of Chairman Powell. Interest rates are inching lower but are not moving at the speed Trump desires. Powell will complete his chairman term mid-year, but he could remain on the Federal Reserve board.
The U.S. government’s recent lawsuit against Chairman Powell appears to be a push to reach both of President Trump’s goals at a faster pace.
However, this lawsuit has not been viewed well on the global finance stage. It is seen as a threat to the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Since the U.S. dollar is globally accepted as a backstop for international debt, any threat to the Fed’s ability to monitor rates could lead to a lack of faith in the U.S. dollar.
Possible Impacts
How could these things ultimately impact propane (LPG) prices?
Volatility
First, this could usher in a decent amount of volatility on a daily and monthly basis. Underneath our item #1 above, it’s important to note that North American energy prices could see even higher volatility due to the upcoming United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA, previously NAFTA) that will expire midyear. In order for goods and services to flow easily between Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, there will need to be a similar agreement in place. Negotiating this could lead to strong price movements over the second and third quarter periods of 2026.
“Bearish” Pressure on Propane/LPG
Second, the first two items could bring more bearish pressure on propane (LPG) prices. Normally, rising geopolitical risks (which is how item #1 would be classified) will generate bullish activity in energy prices. The current action against Venezuela creates the possibility for more oil to enter the global market. The same things could happen with any possible regime change in Iran.
US Fed Conflict May Not be “Bullish” for Energy
Finally, in previous years we would have firmly pointed to a falling dollar as bullish for energy stocks. This relationship hasn’t been quite as consistent over the last decade. And IF the U.S. dollar moves lower due to a perceived “lack of independence” while there are also shifting global alliances, it may only have a limited impact on energy prices.
Conclusion
Calendar year 2025 kept the propane (LPG) market busy due to the impacts of tariffs. Our predictions show that 2026 will be just as busy. However, this year it appears the activity will be due to the impacts of U.S. governmental pressure on various nations and regions, an excess supply of oil and LPG, and the ongoing conflict between the United States’ current administration and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Westlark Advisors is closely monitoring these issues. We are passionate about sharing our market expertise with our energy industry clients, helping them make smart decisions as they navigate volatile commodity markets.
If you would like more information about how your business can navigate the challenges of 2026 and build sustainable value and growth, contact a Westlark Team Member!
2026: What to Expect
By JD Buss
