Gold – It’s all the Rage!
In June 2025, J.P. Morgan Research stated that they expect gold to average $3,675/oz for the final quarter of 2025 and then rise toward $4,000/oz by the second quarter of 2026.
Fast forward to the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2025 and we see Goldman Sachs also calling for gold to push to $4,000/oz by mid 2026. What has been fueling the surge in gold prices? Goldman analyst Daan Struyven said that speculation “explains only a modest one percent of the14% rally since August 26 and has not increased over the last three weeks.”
Rising Demand for Gold
Going back to the June J.P. Morgan Research we see that they highlighted strong investor and central bank demand. Gold remains a prominent item for global nations. The United States, Germany, France and Italy hold nearly half of the global gold reserves.
Increasing Investor Demands
Both J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs point to increases in investor demand and specifically coming through ETF funds. Western ETF funds saw their holdings increase by 109 tons in September, well above the Goldman expectation of 17 tons. All of this points to why Goldman Sachs calls gold its “highest-conviction long commodity recommendation.”
Gold’s climb has been like a rocket ship and that is very evident in our Monthly Gold chart below.
Current Record High Gold Prices
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Previous Record High Gold Prices & RSIs
1970s – 1980s
50 Years of Gold Prices
This view covers 50 years of gold prices and we have highlighted three specific events. Starting from the far right, we see current prices running at record highs. Below that is a pink arrow point to another record high for our RSI (Relative Strength Index). The last time this indicator was that high – back in the late 1970s and early 1980’s.
Conclusion
Rising gold prices fit the current economic uncertainty, rising inflation, and even populist government movements taking place around the globe. But even gold prices will have to reach a ceiling at some point.
Our current event for this month centers on gold because it tells a story regarding views of the current market and also gives clues about a possible future. Any “unwinding” gold positions could usher in quick and steep price declines in the precious metal. Watching gold for the remainder of 2025 and the first half of 2026 may be vital for understanding both equity markets and other commodities.
Current Events – October 2025
By JD Buss
